26 Nov EUR Analysis

After making the 1.4968 high, price came back sharply and the indicators shows us that the EUR is still overbought and that we might see a retrace soon. This, however, does not change the fact that the current trend as well as the primary trend is still bullish and this still places the EUR in a bullish probability. We will only move away from our bullish stance when the current

trend is violated to the low side.

*********

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

26 Nov GBP Analysis

Price bounced off the 2.0350 support and higher highs and higher lows are still being formed. The only reason we are not trading bullish yet is the fact that the new bearish current trend has to be violated to the upside.

Should price continue to move within the new bearish current trend's boundaries, we might take bearish trades with LOW exposure (till 2.0350 is reached) as the risk is still clearly to the upside.

*****************

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

20 Nov GBP Analysis

First of all - The interim current trend is violated and now we will see if the 2.0350 support (derived from the alternative current trend support line) is significant.

Since the violation of the interim current trend, the bias is mixed as volatility is ample. The current trend will be adjusted if price bounces on the 2.0350 support and then the outlook will obviously turn bullish again. Let's wait and see...

******

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

20 Nov EUR Analysis

The FOMC minutes are released today later in the US session, therefore some more consolidation can be expected. The current trend is still not violated as we can see on the chart above and thus we are still - theoretically spoken - situated within a bullish probability.

The main risk here is carry trade unwinding as the major indexes continue to sell off and commodity based currencies are taking a huge hit. We stand aside.

******

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

13 Nov GBP Analysis

Sterling also has to violate the bullish current trend support line. But our bullish outlook is quickly diminishing due to carry trade unwinding. We stand aside at this time.

****

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

13 Nov EUR Analysis

The main support to look for here is the 1.4450 current trend support line. If this line is violated, we might get ample short opportunities. It seems that unwinding of carry trades are in motion, therefore no bullish trades until the highs are taken out.

*****

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

08 Nov 2007

Whoa. Magic rule of the year 2007. Short the bucky and print money$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Back on planet earth we have the Eurozone interest rate and BoE rate decision today. We are playing it safe by stepping aside as the volatility can be dramatic and any dovishness from both King and Trichet can cause a far reaching sellof of the GBP and EUR.

(My friends in stocks are predicting an imminent selloff in all the major indexes. So be careful. Any sign of a $$$$ turnaround may cause massive carry trade unwinding as stocks also selloff)

Anyway the major trend and current trend is still long, confirming our bullish outlook.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

01 Nov 2007 EUR Analysis

Just like the Cable - long

The Fed is cutting rates and Euroland worries about inflation. Hmmmm. Glad I'm not short.

Anyway, the Major and Current trends are long which confirms the bullish outlook.

****

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

01 Nov 2007 GBP Analysis

The Fed cut rates with 25 basis points yesterday, fuelling this volatile buck decline. This is the current scenario:

The Major trend is bullish and the Current trend is bullish as well. This confirms our bullish outlook as usual. Now that we know the Fed is not bluffing when it comes to choosing between housing and the dollar, we can just as well assume the the rate cuts will continue as this is the start of the cutting cycle.

Therefore nothing points short or sideways.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

23 Oct 2007 EUR Analysis

Price went as high as 1.4350 and then retraced with more than 200 pips. Carry trade unwinding is back and so is the volatility, therefore we will stand aside. The bullish current trend support is located at 1.4100 and if this line is violated, our bias will be short depending on the volatility. Again we want to stress the fact that volatility such as we have seen yesterday really amplifies the risk. Be careful..

*****

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

23 Oct 2007 GBP Analysis

Price hit 2.0574 and retraced with 300 pips after a rout of profit taking and carry trade unwinding. If more financial institutions release bad figures, we can assume that more carry trade unwinding will take place until the various central banks decide to pump more liquidity into the market.

Now we daytraders are between a rock and a hard place in terms of volatility. The risk of a non-trending market just got amplified. Therefore we will stand aside at this time.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

17 Oct 2007 GBP Analysis

Although the probability is bullish there are two important aspects of the current situation we should discuss:
1) Price has not breached the 2.0650 all time high and continued with a more explosive current trend
****First of all we can see that we are situated within a great bullish probability and maybe this current trend will eventually continue to breach the 2.0650 high, but at this point in time we will excercise LOW EXPOSURE related trades as the cable is the 'boss of bosses' when it comes to volatile retracements. Unfortunately this is the scenario. Only when the high has been taken out, we can start executing trades with more exposure. Keep the risk as low as possible guys.

2) The BoE minutes are released today (08:30 gmt)

****Now this is interesting...Will our Uncle Merv continue to subtly move away from his hawkish tone? The point is that the fundamentals in the past few weeks was pretty mixed and inflation might seem to be under control but wait.....what about the high price of oil? Makes you think

Anyway, we're definitely not bearish yet

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

17 Oct 2007 EUR Analysis

If we study the bottom chart we can see that the Major trend and the Current Trend is still pretty much bullish - this calls for a bullish probability. At this point in time we are waiting patiently for price to break out of this sideways movement between the 1.4282 high and 1.4000 horisontal support. This is also why the indicators are practically mixed.

The CPI figure released later today in the US will most probably have a huge impact on the greenback and as usual we will notice a good dosis of volatility.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

11 Oct 2007 EUR Analysis

What a great currency to trade. No violent retracements - only consolidation before the next upsurge. It seems that the EUR has bounced on the .382 retracement level accompanied by a significant falling wedge which confirmed the imminent breakout.

We will continue to buy dips

The Trade Balance and Jobless claims in the US might have an impact as the guys in euroland seems to be little concerned about the quick appeciation of the euro...

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

11 Oct 2007 GBP Analysis

Cable could not breach the 2.0500 resistance yesterday, although price has been trending upwards from the 2.0257 low. The GBP is still in a bull trend, therefore we will continue to buy dips.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

4 Oct 2007 GBP Daily Analysis

The BoE announces rates today and the consensus is that they will keep interest rates at 5.75%

Yesterday was mostly consolidation with price making intraday lows near the end of the US session. We can only speculate that this was due to profit taking before that rate announcement.

The trend is bullish and we still project that price will reach the 2.0650 high soon. The other scenario is that the BoE might revert to a more definite dovish tone. If the latter happens we can see a pullback to the 2.0200 support

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

4 Oct 2007 EUR Daily Analysis

For the past few months the EUR has been situated in a bullish probability - except for the steep retrace in August due to the unwinding of carry trades.

Today the ECB announces rates and therefore price can consolidate and even touch the 1.4000 psychological support which is also the .382 retracement of the current upmove within the minor bull trend.

The consensus is that the ECB will keep rates unchanged with maybe more empasizing of their hawkishness in the follow-up speech. Therefore we will buy dips and continue to ride this bull trend.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

3 Oct 2007 GBP Midday Analysis

Price is currently consolidating before the next possible surge towards our 2.0650 Target. The major and minor trends are bullish, confirming the bullish probability. The UK PMI came out a tad lower at 56.7, adding to the general belief that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

2 Oct 2007 Cable Daily Analysis

Herewith my first posting: GBP Daily

The Bank of England announces rates on Thursday and it seems like the credit crisis is a thing of the past and the carry trade has continued. Therefore we can assume that the UK's inflationary pressure will return soon - calling for more rate hikes in the future?

According to the chart above, price is heading towards the 2.0650 high emphasizing the bullish probability we can see within the bullish yearly trend.

Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice