What is the direction of highest probability today? (17/11/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events:

09:30 GMT UK CPI

13:30 US PPI

14:00 US TIC Flows

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4872
Bearish Probability below: 1.4872
Significant support: 1.4872, 1.4745
Significant resistance:1.5048

*Only if price moves above 1.5048 will we have a bullish trading condition

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6775
Bearish Probability below: 1.6775
Significant support: 1.6775, 1.6659
Significant resistance:1.6843

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: NA
Bullish Probability above: 0.9405
Significant resistance: 0.9405, 0.9373
Significant support:0.9310, 0.9100

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 89.37
Bullish Probability above: 89.37
Significant resistance: 89.37, 90.00
Significant support:88.00

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Dow, Oil and Gold Analysis - 16 November 2009

Gold, pure consolidation before next break is seen. Expect resistance at 1160
Oil, anything below 75.39 = strong bearish bias

Dow, anything above 10341 = strong bullish bias

What is the direction of highest probability today? (16/11/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events:

10:00 GMT – Eurozone CPI

13:30 GMT – US retail sales

* both of the above are significant fundamentals so I suggest you make sure your exposure is in place before trading before such a big market moving fundamental

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4877
Bearish Probability below: 1.4877
Significant support: 1.4877, 1.4750
Significant resistance:1.5050

*the high at 1.5050 must be taken out before this one will be deemed bullish trading condition

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6735
Bullish Probability above: 1.6835
Significant resistance: 1.6843
Significant support:1.6630

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9317
Bearish Probability below: 0.9317
Significant support: 0.9317, 0.9290
Significant resistance:0.9370

*the high at 0.9370 must be taken out before this one will be deemed bullish trading condition

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 89.77
Bullish Probability above: 89.77
Significant resistance: 89.77, 90.11
Significant support:89.27

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (11/11/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

UK Unemployment @ 9:30 GMT

BoE Inflation Report @ 10:30 GMT

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4975
Bearish Probability below: 1.4975
Significant support: 1.4975
Significant resistance:1.5019

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6688
Bearish Probability below: 1.6688
Significant support: 1.6688
Significant resistance:1.7034

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: na
Bullish Probability above: 0.9322
Significant resistance: 0.9322
Significant support:0.9261 (wait for this support to b violated before bearish TC confirmed)

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.46
Bullish Probability above: 90.46
Significant resistance: 89.78, 90.46
Significant support:88.00

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (10/11/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4940
Bearish Probability below: 1.4940
Significant support: 1.4940, 1.4700
Significant resistance:1.5060

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: na
Bullish Probability above: 1.6700
Significant resistance: 1.6700
Significant support:1.6500

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: na
Bullish Probability above: 0.9322
Significant resistance: 0.9322
Significant support:0.9215

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.55
Bullish Probability above: 90.55
Significant resistance: 90.55
Significant support:89.70

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

How to do a EUR/USD Probability Study, 9 Nov

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Below follows a three-step Probability Study on the EUR/USD

Directions:

1) Identify the Major trend – Daily chart

2) Identify the Current trend – 4 hour chart

3) Identify the 60minute trend - 1 hour chart

* the 60 minute trend will depict the direction of highest probability. This will be your context for today’s trading

STEP 1:

Identify the Major

STEP 2:

Identify the Current

STEP 3:

Identify the 60 minute trend

Now you can see the the 60 minute trend is bullish. Therefore the direction of highest probability is bullish for today and it will remain this way until the 60minute trend support line is violated and confirmed.

I will continue by adding my fishing stochastic to the 1 hour chart to see if I have a trading condition or not. I will then execute my own personal trading entry system in the direction of highest probability and ONLY when my stochastic is pointing in the direction of highest probability as well.

I am presenting yet another FREE lesson on the Probability Study technique on Friday the 13th of November. You can book yourself a seat here: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php

If you are patient enough to wait for a trading condition to develop within the direction of highest probability, you place yourself in such a great position to minimize your drawdown. If you can keep your drawdown as low as possible, you can expose more for the same amount of risk and make more money the sensible way

See you on Friday and I will tell you more

Enjoy your day

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (05/11/09)

y Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

12:00PM GMT – BoE rate decision

—————————————–

If the Bank of England raises interest rates, we could see the Pound shoot for the stars

If the Bank of England lowers interest rates, we could see how the Pound gets pounded. I will not be surprised if we see a cut. Remember the low GDP figure we saw last month?

12:45PM GMT – ECB rate decision

—————————————–

If the European Central bank raises interest rates, we could see the EUR move higher although this is highly unlikely

If they cut interest rates, the EUR could fall considerably. I do not think they would do anything. Listen to the speech afterwards by Pres. Trichet. Maybe the market could move then if it has not moved yet..

Probability Studies:

————————

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4820
Bearish Probability below:1.4820
Significant support: 1.4820, 1.4660
Significant resistance:none

Direction of Highest Probability: NA
Bearish Probability below: 1.6267
Bullish Probability above: 1.6570
Significant resistance: 1.6570, 1.6625
Significant support:1.6056, 1.6267

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9100, 0.9130
Bullish Probability above: 0.9130
Significant resistance: 0.9130, 0.8940
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 90.35
Bearish Probability below: 90.35
Significant support: 90.35
Significant resistance:90.25

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (03/11/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4812
Bullish Probability above: 1.4812
Significant resistance: 1.4812
Significant support:1.4718, 1.4665, 1.4565

Direction of Highest Probability: No trade zone – wait for break
Bearish Probability below: 1.6340
Bullish Probability above: 1.6500
Significant resistance: 1.6600
Significant support:1.6030

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9080
Bullish Probability above: 0.9080
Significant resistance: 0.9080, 0.9100
Significant support:0.8946

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.60
Bullish Probability above: 90.60
Significant resistance: 90.60, 90.85
Significant support:89.45

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (02/11/09)

By Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes

- The markets are sideways (you’ll see all the No Trade Zones)

- No real significant fundies are released today except pending home sales later in the US session

- I’d rather sit back and be patient and wait for those breaks

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4800
Bullish Probability above: 1.4800
Significant resistance: 1.4800
Significant support:1.4695

Direction of Highest Probability:No Trade Zone – Wait for pattern to breakout first
Bearish Probability below: 1.6345
Bullish Probability above: 1.6535
Significant resistance: 1.6535, 1.6630
Significant support:1.6350, 1.6345, 1.6050

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9070
Bullish Probability above: 0.9070
Significant resistance: 0.9070, 0.9125
Significant support:0.8950

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.75
Bullish Probability above: 90.65
Significant resistance: 90.656
Significant support:89.44

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

jkriek Johan Kriek What is the direction of highest probability today? (30/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key note:

At 10AM GMT we will see Eurozone CPI figures. This could have a “probability changing effect”. Be cautious

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4785
Bearish Probability below: 1.4785
Significant support: 1.4670, 1.4565
Significant resistance:1.5063

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6495
Bearish Probability below: 1.6495
Significant support: 1.6495, 1.6320
Significant resistance:1.6580, 1.6670

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9100
Bearish Probability below: 0.9100
Significant support: 0.9100
Significant resistance:0.9160

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.30
Bullish Probability above: 91.30
Significant resistance: 91.30
Significant support:90.50

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (29/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

- Eurozone Consumer Confidence @ 10AM GMT

- US GDP @ 12:30 GMT

- US Jobless Claims @ 12:30 GMT

*Watch out for those GDP figures. Last week we saw bad GDP figures from the UK and the Pound got pounded…

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4812
Bullish Probability above: 1.4812
Significant resistance: 1.4812
Significant support:1.4657, 1.4563

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6300
Bearish Probability below: 1.6300
Significant support: 1.6300, 1.5927, 1.6257
Significant resistance:1.6680

*Please note that the 60minute trend forms part of a bigger Head and Shoulder bearish pattern. See the chart below (this is why we have a no trade zone) Should the High of 1.6466 be taken, I will have a closer look at longs

Head and Shoulders patterns are bearish when found in a bull trend. The neckline support resides at 1.6257. If latter support is violated we can expect a significant drop to the downside. I would wait for this neckline to be violated before entering any shorts as Technical Analysis is not an exact science. Wait for confirmation first

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9120
Bullish Probability above: 0.9120
Significant resistance: 0.9120
Significant support:0.8889

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.50
Bullish Probability above: 91.50
Significant resistance: 91.00, 9150
Significant support:NA

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique

I am presenting another free Level 1 class on the Probability Study Technique on Friday, 30 October at 6AM EST (10AM GMT) Please go to this link to register for this free class: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (28/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

This is a late study applicable to the current US session:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4875
Bullish Probability above: 1.4875
Significant resistance: 1.4875
Significant support:1.4665

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6285
Bearish Probability below: 1.6285
Significant support: 1.6285, 1.6257
Significant resistance:1.6680

*Please note that the 60minute trend forms part of a bigger Head and Shoulder bearish pattern. See the chart below (this is why we have a no trade zone)

Head and Shoulders patterns are bearish when found in a bull trend. The neckline support resides at 1.6257. If latter support is violated we can expect a significant drop to the downside. I would wait for this neckline to be violated before entering any shorts as Technical Analysis is not an exact science. Wait for confirmation first

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9140
Bullish Probability above: 0.9140
Significant resistance: 0.9140, 0.9195
Significant support:0.8916

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique

I am presenting another free Level 1 class on the Probability Study Technique on Friday, 30 October at 6AM EST (10AM GMT) Please go to this link to register for this free class: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (22/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

- Eurozone Current Account @ 8:00GMT

- UK Retail Sales @ 08:30GMT

- US Jobless Claims @ 12:30GMT

- US House Price Index @ 14:00 GMT

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

*remember I have a free class on the Probability Study technique at 10am GMT. Please register here: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr/register.php