13 Feb 08 GBP Analysis

We are waiting for the BoE inflation report to be released later. If the report is biased towards lower interest rates in the months to come, a move towards 1.9330 can be anticipated.

As soon as the lower 1.9330 support line is violated, the GBP will be situated in a perfect bearish trading probability and the new Major trend will then take effect...

13 Feb 08 EUR Analysis

The EUR is still deadlocked in a trading range with 1.4950 as the significant resistance and 1.4440 support. The negative divergence we see on the chart above still signals that a significant selloff of the EUR can be anticipated.

The small rebound we saw yesterday is derived from Buffet's rescue of some major insurers (EUR positively correlated to US stocks) and the unexpected positiveness of the ZEW survey.

Anyway, the EUR is still situated within a non-tradeable scenario and therefore we are waiting for either the upper resistance or lower resistance of this sideways current trend to be violated...

08 Feb 08 EUR Analysis

Negative Divergence, a dovish Trichet, rising wedge in a bullish major trend...Glad we are not long in the EUR. Our indicators are a bit oversold, emphasizing the significance of the 1.4440 support. We will therefore sit back and patiently wait for the ultimate bearish probability to unfold

08 Feb 08 EUR Analysis (overview)

The hawkish comments from Trichet yesterday caused the EUR to move back to the 1.4440 area. Next support is 1.4360 and then 1.4300. Our indicators are a bot oversold, signalling some consolidation before we see the next move short.

08 Feb 08 GBP Analysis

As we can see, that range between 1.9960 and 1.9330 is still intact. Our MACD still indicates bearish momentum and any 'bad' news from the UK will force price to breach this range to the downside, placing the GBP in a suitable bearish tradeable condition.

08 Feb 08 GBP Analysis (overview)

The violated Current Trend reistance line has now become support at 1.9385. The GBP is still situated within a no-go zone due to the fact that price is still outside the violated Current Trend range. Should price move back into this range and breach the 1.9330 low, we will adjust the Current Trend and look for short entries.

We initially thought that the 25-basis point cut by the BoE yesterday will force price past 1.9330, but to no avail. We will therefore stand back and wait for our inevitable bearish probability to unfold.

07 Feb 08 GBP Analysis

The greenback is quite strong due to risk aversion and we might see a cut by the BoE today, emphasizing the bearish undertone. It's just a pity that price moved out of the previous bearish Current Trend's range and now we have a full-blown sideways Current Trend, halting any bearish trades.

If the BoE cuts rates today or even profess a hawkish tone, we might see a breach of the 1.9330 low soon and if the MACD keeps on signalling bearish momentum we will be situated within a tradeable bearish probability

07 Feb 08 EUR Analysis

A sideways Current Trend with a slightly bearish undertone points out that we are heading to a bearish probability on the EUR. That fact that price could not breach the 1.4968 high and continuously found resistance in that area emphasizes the significance of the Current Trend resistance line.

With the ECB releasing their rate decision later today we might see a steep decline if Trichet continues his hawkish tone - or even cut...

31 Jan 08 GBP Analysis

Although we can clearly see that the Current Trend resistance has been violated, the indicators are point out that price is overbought. Remember that we are still situated within a bearish current/primary trend, therefore if price moves back into the current trend channel, we will look for short trades

31 Jan 08 EUR Analysis

Another 50 basis point cut by the FED sent the EUR surging to the 1.4900 level. This is the resistance line of the Current Trend. Should price move past 1.4900 the next stop will be the high of 1.4968 and then 1.5000.

Our indicators are nearing overbought levels - especially the stochastic - signalling that any 'good news' from the US might cause a pause in the string of rate cuts and ultimately price should level off and maybe continue south..

Do not forget that if the Current Trend Resistance Line is violated and price moves through the 1.4900 level, we will be situated within a moderate bullish probability

29 Jan 08 GBP Analysis

As we can see on the lower chart, the Bullish Major trend support line has been violated. We initially thought that the 75 basis point cut last week could push the cable back into the Major trend's channel. Although we saw a surge in Sterling, we have to face the facts:

- The violation of the bullish major trend testifies that we are now situated within a bearish probability

- The Current Trend will in the near future develop into a new Bearish Major trend

Market movement is now converging on the bearish current trend resistance line. Let's see if it holds. Should the current trend be violated to the upside, we might see price moving all the way up to around the 2.0300 level to confirm the violated Major Trend Support line (which has now become a HUGE resistance)

We will trade short as soon as we can see a clear bounce on the Current Trend resistance line as all our Indicators are still showing some bullish momentum

21 Jan 08 EUR Analysis

Here we can see how the violation of the Current Trend has been confirmed. The blue channel reflects the new bearish Current Trend and the indicators also confirms the bearish momentum inherent in the market.

We can expect a further decline to 1.4300 after we might see a retrace.

The current turmoil - US recession, slump in housing, carry trade unwinding - amplifies the risk, therefore we will stand aside as the EUR is still situated within its bullish Major Trend. Technically speaking we are not situated within a suitable trading scenario. Should market movement continue to define this new bearish Current Trend and decline further, low exposure shorts might be taken - please note this is not for the faint hearted!

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Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

21 Jan 08 EUR Analysis (Overview)

Well, the year 2008 has started and already we can feel the heat of carry trade unwinding. The EUR has violated the Current Trend support line. The looming US recession will impact the European economy negatively and therefore our bullish outlook on the EUR faded with the year 2007 :)

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Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice