31 Jan 08 GBP Analysis

Although we can clearly see that the Current Trend resistance has been violated, the indicators are point out that price is overbought. Remember that we are still situated within a bearish current/primary trend, therefore if price moves back into the current trend channel, we will look for short trades

31 Jan 08 EUR Analysis

Another 50 basis point cut by the FED sent the EUR surging to the 1.4900 level. This is the resistance line of the Current Trend. Should price move past 1.4900 the next stop will be the high of 1.4968 and then 1.5000.

Our indicators are nearing overbought levels - especially the stochastic - signalling that any 'good news' from the US might cause a pause in the string of rate cuts and ultimately price should level off and maybe continue south..

Do not forget that if the Current Trend Resistance Line is violated and price moves through the 1.4900 level, we will be situated within a moderate bullish probability

29 Jan 08 GBP Analysis

As we can see on the lower chart, the Bullish Major trend support line has been violated. We initially thought that the 75 basis point cut last week could push the cable back into the Major trend's channel. Although we saw a surge in Sterling, we have to face the facts:

- The violation of the bullish major trend testifies that we are now situated within a bearish probability

- The Current Trend will in the near future develop into a new Bearish Major trend

Market movement is now converging on the bearish current trend resistance line. Let's see if it holds. Should the current trend be violated to the upside, we might see price moving all the way up to around the 2.0300 level to confirm the violated Major Trend Support line (which has now become a HUGE resistance)

We will trade short as soon as we can see a clear bounce on the Current Trend resistance line as all our Indicators are still showing some bullish momentum

21 Jan 08 EUR Analysis

Here we can see how the violation of the Current Trend has been confirmed. The blue channel reflects the new bearish Current Trend and the indicators also confirms the bearish momentum inherent in the market.

We can expect a further decline to 1.4300 after we might see a retrace.

The current turmoil - US recession, slump in housing, carry trade unwinding - amplifies the risk, therefore we will stand aside as the EUR is still situated within its bullish Major Trend. Technically speaking we are not situated within a suitable trading scenario. Should market movement continue to define this new bearish Current Trend and decline further, low exposure shorts might be taken - please note this is not for the faint hearted!

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Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice

21 Jan 08 EUR Analysis (Overview)

Well, the year 2008 has started and already we can feel the heat of carry trade unwinding. The EUR has violated the Current Trend support line. The looming US recession will impact the European economy negatively and therefore our bullish outlook on the EUR faded with the year 2007 :)

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Disclaimer: All statements and expressions in this analysis are opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Forex can be volatile and opinions may change without notice