What is the direction of highest probability today? (01/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Seems like a slow start today but if you are patient you will be rewarded

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4550
Bearish Probability below: 1.4525
Significant support: 1.4525, 1.4550
Significant resistance:1.4690

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5905
Bearish Probability below: 1.5905
Significant support: 1.5905
Significant resistance:1.6220

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.8779
Bearish Probability below: 0.8779
Significant support: 0.8779, 0.8665
Significant resistance:0.8860

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.25
Bullish Probability above: 90.25
Significant resistance: 90.25, 91.05
Significant support:88.20
___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

What is the direction of highest probability today? (30/09/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

EUROZONE inflation estimates and US GDP can cause a shift. Watch out

Below follows your Probabilities for today:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4595
Bearish Probability below: 1.4595/90
Significant support: 1.4595
Significant resistance:1.4900

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5870
Bearish Probability below: 1.5870
Significant support: 1.5870
Significant resistance:1.6280

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.8740
Bearish Probability below: 0.8740
Significant support: 0.8740
Significant resistance:0.9000

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.25
Bullish Probability above: 90.25
Significant support: 88.20
Significant resistance:90.25

___________________________________________________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (29/09/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

The markets seem to be pretty quiet today

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4641
Bullish Probability above: 1.4641
Significant resistance: 1.4641
Significant support:1.4575

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5890
Bearish Probability below: 1.5890
Significant support: 1.5890
Significant resistance:1.5950, 1.6300

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.8730
Bearish Probability below: 0.8690
Significant support: 0.8730, 0.8690
Significant resistance:0.8788

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.50
Bullish Probability above: 90.50
Significant resistance: 90.50
Significant support:88.20

___________________________________________________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

When is a trend violation confirmed?

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

I was asked by a number of people over the past week in the Live Trading Room the following:

“WHEN IS A VIOLATION CONFIRMED?”

“AT WHAT STAGE DO WE START TRADING IN THE NEW DIRECTION?”

Well fellow traders, here is your answer in plain and simple:

One of the rules of the DOW THEORY is that “a trend will remain intact until it gives a definite reversal”

This means that even if a trend is violated, you’ll need to wait for that VIOLATION TO BE CONFIRMED before adjusting your trend lines

If you have a look at the above chart you will see that price violated the bull trend’s support line but the violation was only confirmed once price came back to test that violated trend line again

Remember the golden rule of supply and demand?

A support line is a demand line. These demand lines are synonymous with bulls, but when such a demand/support line is violated then suddenly it becomes a supply line or resistance line

So, price comes back to find resistance at previously violated support and thereby creating a lower peak and also confirming the violation. Look at the example below:

This is a one hour chart of the Cable. See how price violated the bear trend’s resistance line (supply) and then came back to confirm the violation by finding support at previous violated resistance (now demand)

Even though is great and text-book, please note that technical analysis is not an exact science and I have seen price move back into the violated channel on numerous occasions

Nevertheless, I am and will always be a firm believer of the above and of course the Dow theory as a whole

If you want to learn more about technical analysis and learn how to trade using the Probability Study technique, register yourself a seat here: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php

I hope this answered your questions!

Johan Kriek

Update on Probability Studies (28/09/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4667
Bullish Probability above: 1.4667
Significant resistance: 1.4667
Significant support:1.4570

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5840 – ESTIMATED
Bearish Probability below: 1.5770
Significant support: 1.5770, 1.5840
Significant resistance:1.5970

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.8700
Bearish Probability below: 0.8700
Significant support: 0.8700
Significant resistance:0.8730

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.35
Bullish Probability above: 90.35
Significant resistance: 90.35
Significant support:88.20

___________________________________________________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (28/09/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Dollar strength across the board but as we know, the market does not move in a straight line so watch out for volatility

Only the GBP is the reluctant one as the probability has just turned North

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4670
Bullish Probability above: 1.4670
Significant resistance: 1.4670
Significant support:1.4571

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5830 – ESTIMATED
Bearish Probability below: 1.5770
Significant support: 1.5770, 1.5800
Significant resistance:1.6000

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.8700
Bullish Probability above: 0.8700
Significant resistance: 0.8700
Significant support:0.8590

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.50
Bullish Probability above: 90.50
Significant resistance: 90.50
Significant support:88.20

This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (25/09/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4720
Bullish Probability above: 1.4730
Significant resistance: 1.4720,1.4730
Significant support:1.4610

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6110
Bullish Probability above: 1.6110
Significant resistance: 1.6110, 1.6350
Significant support: 1.5800

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.8730
Bullish Probability above: 0.8720
Significant resistance: 0.8730, 0.8780
Significant support:0.8530

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.00
Bullish Probability above: 91.00
Significant resistance: 91.00, 91.50
Significant support:87.00

This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (24/09/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

The currencies are pretty mixed this morning. Nevertheless, I see a trading condition on the EUR and JPY

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4710
Bearish Probability below: 1.4710
Significant support: 1.4710, 1.4685
Significant resistance: 1.4842

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.6380
Bullish Probability above: 1.6435
Significant resistance: 1.6435, 1.6630
Significant support: 1.6140

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 60MINUTE TREND NOT YET IDENTIFIED
Bullish Probability above: 0.8750
Significant resistance: 0.8787
Significant support: 0.8670

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.30
Bullish Probability above: 91.30
Significant resistance: 91.30, 91.80
Significant support: 90.20, 90.00

This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan