jkriek Johan Kriek What is the direction of highest probability today? (30/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key note:

At 10AM GMT we will see Eurozone CPI figures. This could have a “probability changing effect”. Be cautious

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4785
Bearish Probability below: 1.4785
Significant support: 1.4670, 1.4565
Significant resistance:1.5063

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6495
Bearish Probability below: 1.6495
Significant support: 1.6495, 1.6320
Significant resistance:1.6580, 1.6670

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9100
Bearish Probability below: 0.9100
Significant support: 0.9100
Significant resistance:0.9160

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.30
Bullish Probability above: 91.30
Significant resistance: 91.30
Significant support:90.50

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique or to book a free Level 1 class

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (29/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

- Eurozone Consumer Confidence @ 10AM GMT

- US GDP @ 12:30 GMT

- US Jobless Claims @ 12:30 GMT

*Watch out for those GDP figures. Last week we saw bad GDP figures from the UK and the Pound got pounded…

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4812
Bullish Probability above: 1.4812
Significant resistance: 1.4812
Significant support:1.4657, 1.4563

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6300
Bearish Probability below: 1.6300
Significant support: 1.6300, 1.5927, 1.6257
Significant resistance:1.6680

*Please note that the 60minute trend forms part of a bigger Head and Shoulder bearish pattern. See the chart below (this is why we have a no trade zone) Should the High of 1.6466 be taken, I will have a closer look at longs

Head and Shoulders patterns are bearish when found in a bull trend. The neckline support resides at 1.6257. If latter support is violated we can expect a significant drop to the downside. I would wait for this neckline to be violated before entering any shorts as Technical Analysis is not an exact science. Wait for confirmation first

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9120
Bullish Probability above: 0.9120
Significant resistance: 0.9120
Significant support:0.8889

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 91.50
Bullish Probability above: 91.50
Significant resistance: 91.00, 9150
Significant support:NA

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique

I am presenting another free Level 1 class on the Probability Study Technique on Friday, 30 October at 6AM EST (10AM GMT) Please go to this link to register for this free class: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (28/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

This is a late study applicable to the current US session:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.4875
Bullish Probability above: 1.4875
Significant resistance: 1.4875
Significant support:1.4665

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6285
Bearish Probability below: 1.6285
Significant support: 1.6285, 1.6257
Significant resistance:1.6680

*Please note that the 60minute trend forms part of a bigger Head and Shoulder bearish pattern. See the chart below (this is why we have a no trade zone)

Head and Shoulders patterns are bearish when found in a bull trend. The neckline support resides at 1.6257. If latter support is violated we can expect a significant drop to the downside. I would wait for this neckline to be violated before entering any shorts as Technical Analysis is not an exact science. Wait for confirmation first

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9140
Bullish Probability above: 0.9140
Significant resistance: 0.9140, 0.9195
Significant support:0.8916

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php to learn this technique

I am presenting another free Level 1 class on the Probability Study Technique on Friday, 30 October at 6AM EST (10AM GMT) Please go to this link to register for this free class: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability.php

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (22/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events today:

- Eurozone Current Account @ 8:00GMT

- UK Retail Sales @ 08:30GMT

- US Jobless Claims @ 12:30GMT

- US House Price Index @ 14:00 GMT

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

*remember I have a free class on the Probability Study technique at 10am GMT. Please register here: http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/ltr/register.php

What is the direction of highest probability today? (21/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key event for today:

08:30 GMT – BoE releases October meeting minutes

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support:
Bearish Probability below:
Significant support:
Significant resistance:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance:
Bullish Probability above:
Significant resistance:
Significant support:

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system

within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (20/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key events:

- US inflation figures in the form op PPI at 12:30GMT

Key notes:

- Price is consolidating across the board. If you are patient enough to wait for those breakouts you will be rewarded

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4880
Bearish Probability below: 1.4880
Significant support: 1.4880
Significant resistance:none

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6380
Bearish Probability below: 1.6380
Significant support: 1.6380
Significant resistance:1.6448

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9270
Bearish Probability below: 0.9270
Significant support: 0.9270, 0.9210
Significant resistance:none

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 90.55
Bullish Probability above: 90.55
Significant resistance: 90.55, 91.30
Significant support:89.67

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

Probability Studies Recap & Outlook Next Week (19 Oct)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

The US dollar was sold off vs. the majors this week. The Japanese Yen benefited hugely. Will this trend continue next week? I don’t know. The only thing I do know is that the markets are pretty mixed as of now. At this point in time the JPY, EUR and GBP are bullish against the Bucky. The only one saying “nah” is the AUD

The above scenario sketches what we will be heading into next week. Have a look at the studies below so you can use this as a benchmark. Remember to make notes of the levels where the direction of highest probability will change as it is most important to change your perspective as soon as the bias changes in order to stay ahead and trade with as little risk as possible

Although this was a great week, remember to stay disciplined and you will be rewarded

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4855
Bearish Probability below: 1.4855
Significant support: 1.4855, 1.4560
Significant resistance:1.4969

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6305
Bearish Probability below: 1.6305
Significant support: 1.6305, 1.5700
Significant resistance:1.6446

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: Not yet identified
Bullish Probability above: 0.9230
Significant resistance: 0.9230
Significant support:0.8766

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 90.40
Bearish Probability below: 90.40
Significant support: 90.40, 89.55
Significant resistance:95.30

Something interesting on the YEN:

I see we had an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern in the JPY. The neckline at 90.42 has since been violated to the upside as the pattern signified. Possibly, price could make a move downwards and bounce on 90.42 to confirm the breakout. Keep and eye on that support as it it significant. The direction of highest probability is bullish in any case so I wouldn’t enter any shorts. I’d rather look for nice long entries

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (15/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

We could see a volatile trading day today due to the following announcements:

8:00AM GMT – ECB Monthly bulletin,
9:00AM GMT – EUROZONE CPI (huge inflation figure)
12:30AM GMT – US CPI (another huge inflation figure)

Inflation and inflation expectations move markets due to the fact that it governs Interest Rates. If interest rates go higher then the underlying currency will strengthen. Keep and eye on these figures..

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4830
Bearish Probability below: 1.4830
Significant support: 1.4830
Significant resistance:1.5070

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.6056
Bearish Probability below: 1.6050
Significant support: 1.6056, 1.6050, 1.5966
Significant resistance:1.6444

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9170
Bearish Probability below: 0.9170
Significant support: 0.9170
Significant resistance:0.9845

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 89.63
Bullish Probability above: 89.63
Significant resistance: 89.63
Significant support:89.10

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (14/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

The FOMC minutes later in the US session could be a “market mover”. So keep an eye out for that

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4800
Bearish Probability below: 1.4800
Significant support: 1.4800, 1.4487
Significant resistance:1.5036

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5912
Bearish Probability below: 1.5912
Significant support: 1.5912
Significant resistance:1.6000

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9095
Bearish Probability below: 0.9095
Significant support: 0.9095, 0.8735
Significant resistance:0.9845

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 89.79
Bullish Probability above: 89.79
Significant resistance: 89.79, 90.00
Significant support:88.70

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (13/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

UK inflation and the ZEW economic sentiment figures from Germany could have an impact later

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4735
Bearish Probability below: 1.4735
Significant support: 1.4735, 1.4500
Significant resistance:1.4812

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5787
Bullish Probability above: 1.5900
Significant resistance: 1.5900
Significant support:1.5720

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 0.9060
Bearish Probability below: 0.9060
Significant support: 0.9060
Significant resistance:0.9094

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 89.82
Bearish Probability below: 89.82
Significant support: 89.82
Significant resistance:90.23

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (12/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Due to the Japanese and US public holidays today the market was either very volatile at times or it was consolidating. At this point in time price is consolidating across the board due to the lack of volume

Nevertheless, tomorrow could be very interesting because it will effectively be the start of the week for most of us

Also, the following directions of highest probability could change overnight so rather join me in the Live Trading Room at 3am GMT tomorrow morning to stay up to date.

Probabilities:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4730
Bearish Probability below: 1.4730
Significant support: 1.4730, 1.4695
Significant resistance:1.4813

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 1.5807
Bullish Probability above: 1.5883
Significant resistance: 1.5807
Significant support:1.4850

Direction of Highest Probability: BEARISH
60 minute trend resistance: 0.9070
Bullish Probability above: 0.9070
Significant resistance: 0.9070
Significant support:0.8850

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 89.60
Bearish Probability below: 89.60
Significant support: 89.60
Significant resistance:90.30

________________________________

This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan

What is the direction of highest probability today? (09/10/09)

by Johan Kriek (jkriek@fxinstructor.com)

Key notes:

*UK inflation figures at 08:30 GMT later today could have a significant impact.

Probability Studies:

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.4717
Bearish Probability below: 1.4717
Significant support: 1.4717
Significant resistance:1.4843

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 1.5850
Bearish Probability below: 1.5850
Significant support: 1.5850
Significant resistance:1.6080

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 90.20
Bearish Probability below: 90.20
Significant support: 90.20
Significant resistance:91.00

Direction of Highest Probability: BULLISH
60 minute trend support: 88.50
Bearish Probability below: 88.50
Significant support: 88.50
Significant resistance:89.70

___________________________________
This analysis has been based on the Probability Study Technique which is derived from the Dow Theory

Also note that a “trading condition” does not constitute a trading signal, but rather a context to execute your own trading system within.

For more about the Probability Study Technique, please visit forums.fxinstructor.com or register yourself a seat at
http://www.fxinstructor.com/eng/courses/probability-reserve.php to learn this technique

Enjoy and good luck!

Johan